Traditional planning assumes that you can control or at least predict the key factors that will determine your success. But reality is far more complex. Many of the most important factors affecting your outcomes are completely beyond your control: weather patterns disrupt supply chains, regulatory changes reshape markets, economic shifts alter consumer behaviour, and technological disruptions transform entire industries. When you can't control the factors that matter most, how do you plan effectively?
Most planning processes operate on an implicit assumption: that you can influence or control the key factors affecting your outcomes. This assumption makes planning straightforward - identify what you can control, develop strategies to optimise those factors, and execute your plan. But this approach breaks down when the most important factors are beyond your control.
Consider the project manager who developed a detailed timeline assuming favourable weather conditions, only to watch delays cascade when storms disrupted shipping routes. Or the company that built their strategy around stable regulatory environment, only to find their entire business model challenged when new regulations arrived. In both cases, the planning was thorough, but it assumed control over factors that were completely uncontrollable.
The problem isn't that these factors are unpredictable - it's that traditional planning methods don't provide frameworks for planning when key factors are beyond your control. When you can't control what matters most, you need different approaches to planning.
Traditional planning methods work well when you can control or predict key factors. They help you optimise what you can influence and develop strategies based on expected conditions. But when critical factors are uncontrollable, these methods become less useful. You can't optimise what you can't control, and you can't develop strategies based on expected conditions when those conditions are completely uncertain.
This creates a fundamental challenge: how do you plan effectively when the factors that matter most are beyond your control? The answer isn't to abandon planning - it's to develop planning approaches that work with uncontrollable factors rather than assuming you can control them.
One of the clearest examples of uncontrollable factors is weather. Shipping companies can't control storms, airlines can't control turbulence, and construction projects can't control rain. Yet these weather-dependent factors can completely derail even the most carefully constructed plans.
The traditional response to uncontrollable factors is to build in buffers - extra time, additional resources, or safety margins. But this approach has limitations. Buffers are expensive, and they don't help you adapt when conditions are worse than anticipated. More importantly, they don't help you take advantage of conditions that are better than expected.
Some organisations have discovered a different approach: instead of trying to buffer against uncontrollable factors, they develop multiple plans for different scenarios. When weather disrupts shipping, they have alternative routes ready. When conditions are favourable, they have strategies to accelerate. This approach works with uncontrollability rather than trying to eliminate it.
Supply chain disruptions provide another clear example of uncontrollable factors. You can't control supplier reliability, geopolitical tensions, or global economic conditions. Yet these factors can completely disrupt operations, leaving organisations scrambling to respond.
The organisations that handle supply chain uncertainty most effectively have learned to think in terms of multiple scenarios rather than single predictions. Instead of assuming one supplier will be reliable, they prepare for scenarios where suppliers fail. Instead of assuming stable geopolitical conditions, they develop strategies for different political environments. This approach doesn't eliminate uncertainty - it prepares for it systematically.
Market conditions and regulatory environments are often completely beyond organisational control, yet they can reshape entire industries overnight. A new regulation can make current practices obsolete. A market shift can eliminate demand for products or services. Economic changes can alter consumer behaviour in ways that invalidate existing strategies.
Organisations that successfully navigate these uncontrollable factors have developed approaches that allow them to prepare for multiple market and regulatory scenarios. Instead of assuming one future, they prepare for several. Instead of betting everything on current conditions continuing, they develop flexibility to adapt when conditions change.
The organisations that successfully plan for uncontrollable factors have discovered that the solution isn't to try to control them - it's to prepare for multiple ways they might unfold. Instead of assuming specific weather patterns, supply chain reliability, or market conditions, they identify the key uncertainties and develop strategies that work across multiple scenarios.
This approach transforms planning from a control exercise into a preparation exercise. Instead of trying to optimise for expected conditions, you prepare for multiple possible conditions. Instead of building buffers against worst-case scenarios, you develop flexible strategies that work across scenarios.
Some organisations have developed structured frameworks that help them plan for uncontrollable factors systematically. These frameworks don't require predicting exactly how uncontrollable factors will unfold - they require identifying key uncertainties and preparing for different ways those uncertainties might resolve.
The key insight these organisations have discovered is that you don't need to control factors to plan for them effectively. Instead, you can identify the critical uncertainties, map out different ways they might unfold, and develop flexible strategies that work regardless of which scenario materialises. When uncontrollable factors unfold in unexpected ways, you're ready - not because you predicted them correctly, but because you prepared for multiple possibilities.
The organisations that successfully plan for uncontrollable factors have learned to think about resilience rather than control. Instead of trying to eliminate uncertainty, they build capacity to adapt when uncontrollable factors unfold in unexpected ways. This approach doesn't require predicting the future - it requires preparing for multiple futures.
This resilience-building approach has several advantages. First, it reduces vulnerability to prediction failure because you're not betting everything on one expected outcome. Second, it creates flexibility to adapt when uncontrollable factors unfold differently than anticipated. Third, it builds organisational capability that's valuable across multiple scenarios. Most importantly, it works with uncontrollability rather than trying to eliminate it.
Planning for uncontrollable factors doesn't require abandoning structure or detail. Instead, it requires structuring your thinking around multiple scenarios rather than one assumed outcome. Some organisations have developed frameworks that help them identify key uncertainties, map out different scenarios, and develop flexible strategies that work across possibilities.
These frameworks don't require predicting exactly how uncontrollable factors will unfold - they require systematic thinking about possibilities and preparation across scenarios. This approach makes planning for uncontrollability practical rather than overwhelming, allowing organisations to prepare for multiple futures without getting lost in endless "what if" exercises.
Planning for uncontrollable factors requires a fundamental shift in thinking. Instead of trying to control or predict what you can't influence, you prepare for multiple ways those factors might unfold. This approach transforms planning from a control exercise into a preparation exercise, building resilience that works regardless of which scenario materialises.
The organisations that successfully navigate uncontrollable factors have learned to think in terms of possibilities rather than predictions. They've developed frameworks that help them identify key uncertainties, map out different scenarios, and create flexible strategies that work across multiple futures. The result is organisational resilience that works with uncontrollability rather than trying to eliminate it, preparing them for multiple possible outcomes rather than betting everything on one predicted future.
If you're struggling to plan effectively when key factors are beyond your control, there are structured approaches that can help you prepare for multiple scenarios without requiring perfect prediction or control.
Check out this course to help you prepare for multiple futures: The Future Matrix - Master the Art of Planning for Uncertain Futures